Go Figure

When you haul two carrier groups halfway around the world, it's good odds you're going to use them. Just remember Colin Powell's warning in Iraq - you break it, you bought it.

Well, it was just a matter of time for POTUS to get trigger happy after “winning” in Venezuela.

I mean all the US won was a country broken economically, politically, with a crumbling infrastructure. And for what? Heavy sour crude that will cost more to extract and distribute than sell? A vague hope of a rare earth metals El Dorado somewhere deep in the jungle?

But it was sure fun beating up on an antiquated, under-trained, and poorly equipped military in a US-style Blitzkrieg.

Iran will not be so easy. It’s in OPEC. It has 90 million people in the heart of Middle East. It has enough enriched uranium to make at least 10 nukes and no one knows where it is.

Plus, if the US and Israel continue to bomb Iran, eventually they’re going to start bombing their erstwhile supporters and make life worse under US-Israel than it was under their homegrown ayatollah oppressors.

But hey, at least it gets Epstein off the front pages for a bit, right?

In Other News

There are also few things better for an economy - and a beleaguered president - than a good conflict, especially in a major global tinderbox.

And that’s especially true for the US’s former NATO allies.

Countries now are going to use their inventories and will be itching to buy the newest tech and armaments.

And it 2025 Europe boosted defense spending to 21% of global total. That was about $2.6 trillion - almost 150% more than the US spends on defense.

But the best part for Europe is, it has a lot new customers as many large and small nations look to disengage from US weapons systems and buy from alternative sources not so focused on taking over the world.

This new engagement in Iran will help accelerate this trend. And the same thing will happen in space.

Speaking of space the woe begotten Space Launch System (SLS) which is run by the ULA consortium of legacy defense companies - Boeing (BA), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and L3Harris (LHX) subsidiary Aerojet Rocketdyne - has had its mission focus shifted on Artemis.

ULA continues to show it’s incapable of managing modern spaceflight on a regular, consistent, and safe basis. And as soon as a private firm like Blue Origin or SpaceX or someone else can deliver a heavy/super heavy boost rocket, SLS will likely be history.

It’s testament to how these big defense contractors are incapable of working in a real free market environment. They’ve built massive first generation military industrial complex moats that are being dismantled with fast moving tech firms and companies that are focused on being innovators rather than monopolists. They’re lobbying power and strategically diversified national operations were their ace in the hole, but now faster, cheaper, better, has made their flaws shine more than their abilities.

Plus, when this current president is selling insecurity and chaos, it makes the US a less attractive partner when it comes to buying arms, training, and support.

Anyway, China is moving swiftly in space, as is India, and Europe is as well.

But if you think pirates in the seas on Earth are pesky (and very resilient), wait until space has trillions of dollars of assets of various countries floating around that can be hacked, bumped off orbit, disappeared, zapped, tapped or any manner of other issues.

So my estimation is it’s going to take weeks to months to figure out what POTUS is planning for Iran. He had no plan going in, and now is like a dog who caught the car he was chasing. What happens next is going to be interesting, especially with Netanyahu on DJT’s shoulder.

As for the defense sector, it’s one more reason to be involved in the non-US defense, space, nukes, and fusion. And of course commodities, since if this all goes south the USD is going with it and strategic and precious metals will be sanctuaries.