The Light Switch Effect

The war with Iran is a reminder that things might start abruptly, but they don’t end that swiftly.

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

There’s another one too: “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from a prolonged war.”

So much for the current strategy.

Here’s a sobering assessment from one of the longest serving MI6 officers in an interview with The Economist: https://www.economist.com/insider/inside-defence/a-former-spy-chiefs-take-on-intelligence-and-the-iran-war

But it’s also interesting to watch the markets bounce around because POTUS makes some pronouncement, as if he’s actually in control of this thing.

I keep trying to figure out if the markets are reacting like this because they believe him or they’re trying to encourage him to come to a peaceful resolution quickly.

Either way, the longer this goes on, the less it’s in US or Israel’s hands.

That’s what I call the Light Switch Effect.

People think that once Trump says it’s done, it’s over and we go back to our March Madness brackets, oil prices go down and the US economy continues like it’s business as usual.

And the sad thing is, this is how our entertainment news sets people up for how the world works.

This is all very complex, but it seems we’re back to Plato’s Allegory of the Cave. Shadow makers and the people that try to make sense of the shadows. Yet now it seems people would rather be entertained by the shadows than glean anything from them. And the shadow makers are more than happy about that.

A clear illustration of this is the issue in the Straight of Hormuz. The narrative for the cave dwellers is that once all is sorted, everything will be fine.

Source: Robin J Brooks Substack

But one of the biggest challenges is, with two carrier groups and a third mini-carrier on its way with more air support and thousands of Marines (who don’t usually hang out long on the ships once the hit their destination), the area is thick with US and Israeli operations.

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

That means there’s significant signals jamming going on to provide safe air space.

That jamming effects all civilian shipping and air traffic. It’s not just targeting Iran’s air space or comms.

It’s like sailing or flying blind. And that doesn’t stop until operations are wrapped up.

Not a light switch kind of thing.

The environmental and infrastructure issues - blowing up oil farms, destroying cities, bombing bridges, etc. - don’t just magically reset once this is over.

And as you can tell from the coverage of Venezuela, the press has moved on like all is fine down there now that we’ve “liberated” yet another nation.

But it’s in the chaos where the real corruption begins. And it’s where taxpayer dollars get sucked away even faster, largely because big media oligarchs have gutted news operations and won’t spend on more than one narrative at a time, leaving most passive news gatherers left in the dark - as they like it because it’s good for the rest of their business interests.

Now, The Kingdom and UAE are siding with the US. That means the war is widening. It’s not contained. That’s likely because POTUS doesn’t want it to seem like he’s going it alone on this. But getting Gulf nation emirs involved is going to make this worse instead of better. They haven’t forgotten how the US screwed them during the Arab Spring so it’s not clear how much “support” they’re actually willing to give. And for how long.

Also, Ukraine has delivered clear evidence that Russia is supplying Iran with signals intelligence and targeting data. Silence from Pennsylvania Avenue. Again.

Didn’t Vietnam start this way? A bad decision that triggered deeper US military involvement and then a brutal, divisive US-USSR proxy war? Iran-Iraq?

Also remember that Iran is fighting a war for its very existence where the US is fighting a war of choice.

Another fact worth thinking about: Iran’s theocracy was collapsing. A majority of the people wanted it gone but the government has the military and paramilitary groups that force the regime on the people. Now, there’s less chance the theocracy will topple since there’s less room for opposition parties to rise up while the nation is under seige.

Outside the Gulf

India is looking to Europe for its next tranche of fighters. It has chosen the middle way after decades of buying from Russia or the US to maintain its non-aligned status. It seems this is a signal to other non-aligned nations that if they can’t build their own, Europe may be the best choice.

It’s no surprise that Israel’s defense sector is booming. Not only is it selling to itself, but also the US.

OHB Sweden has won a $250 million contract to build 20 weather satellites for the EUMETSAT system that will focus on both poles. This will help transition from a reliance on US-based signals and also provide a valuable resource as the Arctic opens up.

Italian defense firm Leonardo (FINMY) is buying Iveco’s (IVCGF) military land vehicle division for $2 billion. The two companies have been working together for many years and both have also been working with others like Rheinmetall (RNMBY).